Good morning
US data releases will be one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 london time due to the US clock changes that took place recently.
In addition, FX option expiries will be 14.00 london time, not the usual 15.00 london time.
We change our clocks this weekend so all back to normal next week.
There seems to be a bit of a lull ahead of Trump 2nd April ‘Liberation Day’, as the world awaits any more tariff news. Equity markets were generally lower yesterday, the UK’s FTSE100 was among the best performers, just 0.15% lower. EU and Canada continue to rile Trump as the backlash from tariffs and possible trade wars push the two closer together, at the expense of the US. Carney has made it very clear that the historic relationship between US and Canada is over but that he’ll be speaking to Trump in the next day or two. This isn’t going quite as Trump planned, I don’t think.
GBP continues to perform well, currently 1.2950 and 1.2015 against USD and EUR, it is also looking strong in the crosses, now 2.0550, 2.2625, 1.8540 and 194.75 against AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY respectively.
Ukraine is nowhere near peace, I had feared it all looked too good to be true and with unreasonable Russian conditions on a ceasefire and reports of an attack on Ukraines energy infrastructure, something they had agreed not to attack, we are surely no close than we were a week or two ago. US are still talking about Greenland, Vance is there and Putin has stirred the pot by saying he believes US are serious about taking Greenland. Putin also said that Russia would stand up to any other nations who seemed to be interested in taking some control over the arctic.
Trump has said Ukraine should hand over more minerals and oil in exchange for a ceasefire, with Trump looking for at least US$100bn plus interest. This deal would include no guarantees of security. Meanwhile Starmer is said to be sending military chiefs to Ukraine to help draw up ceasefire plans. I can see a situation where US abandons Ukraine support and Europe is left to stand up to Russia. What happens if Trump doesn’t get his minerals remains to be seen.
Australia’s PM Albanese has called an election on 3rd May, as had been talked about recently. Also from Australia, a poll of economists has suggested RBA will hold rates next week but cut again in May.
Core PCE is the key release today from the US, one that does have market-moving ability. A softer than expected number could see USD end the week on a low although I think traders will be wary of putting on new positions into next week.
Next week brings the end of Q1. I have to say this first quarter has gone pretty quickly, in which time we’ve seen GBPUSD down to 1.2100 and up to 1.3000, EURUSD from 1.0200 to 1.0950 and USDJPY from almost 159.00 to a low below 147.00. Hats off to gold though, which has seen a rally from around $2,600 up to record highs this morning of around $3,085.
No premier league action this weekend but we do have four FA Cup quarter finals to enjoy. Some say the magic of the cup isn’t what it used to be but the fans of the eight clubs remaining wouldn’t agree, especially those of Preston North End who have done a great job of making it this far. Quite an achievement.
I have an achievement of my own to share. I have finally finished all five series of Breaking Bad. I’m not sure how long it has taken us to get through, certainly around the six month mark at least. Many say it is the best TV series of all time while I also know a lot of people who just couldn’t get through the first series. I’m torn, it was a real struggle at times and we put it down for a while to watch other things which I don’t think is a sign of a good, gripping show. Anyway we got through it and I don’t think I could recommend it to anyone who asked. Still, there are a couple of spin-offs such as ‘Better Call Saul’ and ‘El Camino’ in case I ever feel the need to dip my toe in again. Save that for a rainy day.
Have a great weekend as and when it comes. Looks like we’re in for some good weather next week.
Don’t forget the clock change…..
- 10.00 EU consumer confidence
- 12.30 US Core PCE
- 12.30 CAD GDP
- 13.00 ECBs Nagel speaks
- 14.00 US Michigan sentiment survey
- 16.15 Feds Barr speaks
- 19.30 Feds Bostic speaks
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