Good morning
I hope you had a great weekend. We were away just for one night in Brighton, set off early Saturday morning with the car packed full of warm clothes, harts and coats. Boy did I feel overdressed! Saturday in particular was warm, stretching to actually hot when protected from the breeze and the sun was fully out. The place was buzzing. Sunday was a touch cooler, much windier, but even then we didn’t need to wrap up too much. It rained most of last week, its raining today, we certainly got lucky with the weekend weather, that’s for sure.
Fridays US core PCE number was actually pretty much in line with expectations, if anything a touch softer, which led to a bit of a USD sell-off that saw GBPUSD up to 1.3425 and EURUSD just above 1.1200, but by the close those USD losses had been undone and we were trading back to the 1.3380 and 1.1165 area, where we currently sit.
GBP has had a decent run, mostly led by interest rate divergence with both the Fed and ECB, as BoE still fights some sticky inflation readings. However let us not confuse a strong currency with an outperforming economy. UK GDP numbers this morning were lower than hoped and there is a suggestion that some of the growth we may have seen has come from government spending. While the focus at the moment remains on US interest rate moves, there are some expecting GBP to come lower into the year-end, HSBC for one are looking for a return to the 1.28s.
USDJPY has remained under pressure after Fridays election result. As you may recall, USDJPY had pushed higher to almost 146.50 on speculation that Takaichi may win, however as news emerged that Ishiba had won the pair dropped sharply to the low 143s. The move has now extended with USDJPY hitting 141.65 at one stage this morning, now 141.95. The move comes as Japan stocks crumble, Nikkei is down nearly 5% today.
On the contrary, China stocks have seen some incredible gains, major indices up around 8.5%, despite PMI numbers overnight coming in a bit lower than expected. I presume with the host of stimulus measures announced last week that previous economic data is less important as the hope now is that the economy is taken to a new level. I believe there were some new measures announced over the weekend to help homebuyers, which adds to the positive sentiment.
Austria has become the latest EU country to see the right-wing parties perform well in elections. The Freedom Party won 29.2% of the vote, ahead of the People Party with around 26.5%. The voter turnout was a high 75%. Despite the win, they don’t have a majority and will struggle to form a government, as their opposition may well refuse to join a coalition, particularly if Herbert Kickl, the divisive head of Freedom Party, wants to be in charge.
In other news, I see the cruise ship that has been stuck in Belfast for four months is finally due to set sail today. Villa Vie Residences Odyssey Cruise is not your normal holiday cruise ship, instead I think passengers can buy a cabin for 15 years and live there. I don’t think it’s a cheap option mind you, there are some hefty monthly fees to add on top of the cabin cost, but you are guaranteed to see the world several times over. Whats a few months wait when you have possibly 15 years travelling ahead of you.
Spurs managed a win over Man Utd yesterday to lift them into a more reasonable 8th position. Brighton lost their unbeaten record as Chelsea’s Palmer scored four goals. What a signing he has proved to be. Liverpool are top with Man City and Arsenal just below them, Villa missed the chance to go top yesterday with just a draw against Ipswich.
So, as we are in the last day of September I find myself once again thinking how quickly this year is passing by. October tomorrow, we’ll have the UK budget at the end of next month, something for all of us to look forward to!
German inflation numbers out today, plus we hear from Lagarde and Powell. Calendar does look pretty busy this week, tomorrow we have EU inflation, US ISM PMI’s plus a host of Fed officials speaking. Wednesday is quieter, but Thursday brings more US ISM PMIs, while Friday has the main event, the US nonfarm payrolls.
Have a great day
- 13.00 German HICP
- 13.50 Feds Bowman speaks
- 14.00 ECBs Lagarde speaks
- 14.45 US Chicago PMI
- 18.00 Feds Powell speaks
- 21.10 BoEs Greene speaks
- 22.45 NZ building permits
- 23.00 NZ business confidence
- 00.30 Japan unemployment
- 00.50 Japan Tankan index
- 01.30 AUS retail sales, building permits
Comments