Good morning
So the Fed did indeed cut by 50bps to take rates to 5%, Powell confirmed it was concerns over the employment market that led them to the decision. He made it clear he did not think the Fed were behind the curve. The dot plot suggests Fed officials see rates at below 4.375% by the end of this year, and at 3.375% and 2.875% by the end of 2025 and 2026. Questions already begin as to how big the next cut will be, Powell was keen to say there is no preset course for rate cuts, they will be decided based on incoming data.
USD fell immediately after the announcement, GBPUSD reached almost 1.3300 and EURUSD 1.1190, but the move didn’t last long and by the end of the US session we were pretty much back to pre-announcement levels. Overnight GBPUSD dipped as low as 1.3155, EURUSD to 1.1070, but since then we’ve seen USD weakness creep in again and those pairs are now up at 1.3250 and 1.1145 as I type. This puts GBPEUR at 1.1885.
USDJPY saw some decent swings, trading from 141.90 down to 140.50 before bouncing to almost 144.00. It now trades at 142.25. We have the BoJ rate announcement overnight, no changes expected but we’re looking for any clues as to when the next raise might be.
BoC minutes yesterday showed officials there are still worried about downside economic risks, and see inflation risks as reasonably balanced. After the softer than expected inflation numbers earlier this week, and with the Fed cutting 50bps, there is a good chance we’ll see a similar sized cut from BoC at their meeting in October. Data between now and then will be key.
Overnight NZ GDP numbers were not great but not quite as bad as some had feared. NZD was a bit mixed but is now a touch higher, with GBPNZD at 2.1220 and NZDUSD back above 0.6200 at 0.6245, helped of course by the softer USD. Aussie employment numbers were decent overnight although the better than expected headline came from a sharp rise in part time jobs, but a small decline in full time work. AUD is a touch stronger with GBPAUD down at 1.9420 and AUDUSD now at 0.6820, some 200 pips above last weeks lows.
The exploding Hezbollah pagers were followed yesterday by other communication devices such as phones, walkie-talkies and laptops also exploding, causing further deaths and injuries among Hezbollah members. They vow to retaliate, while Israel move troops to the Lebanese border. Unfortunately looks like a full-blown war is looming. The attacks on 7th October last year by Hamas have really upset the entire region.
Spurs scraped through to the last 16 of the League cup with what sounded like an undeserved win over Coventry, two very late goals were needed to turn the tie. Some players on display for Spurs who haven’t been first team regulars, great to give them a run out but there are big question marks over whether they are up to the job. A win is a win, but Spurs really need to improve. There were some other matches last night, Champions League I think, but the League cup is where the big teams want to be!
BoE rate meeting today. Market looks for no change in rates, I had wondered whether the Fed’s cut of 50bps may give a bit of room for BoE to squeeze another 25bps but no one else really seems to agree with me. There could be a couple of members voting for a cut, Dhingra, the well-known dove, and possibly Ramsden are likely to see the need for lower rates. A further 25bps cut is expected to come some time this year, but perhaps not right now. UK retail sales will be out early tomorrow morning.
We also have rate announcements from Turkey and South Africa today. Turkey are expected to keep rates at 50%, South Africa could see fit to cut rates from 8.25% to 8.00%.
Have a great day
- 10.00 ECBs Schnabel speaks
- 11.00 Buba monthly report
- 12.00 BoE rate announcement
- 12.00 Turkey rate announcement
- 12.30 ECB’s Nagel speaks
- 13.00 South Africa rate announcement
- 13.30 US Philly fed survey, initial jobless claims
- 15.00 US existing home sales
- 15.40 ECBs Schnabel speaks
- 00.01 UK GfK consumer confidence
- 00.30 Japan CPI
- 02.15 PBoC rate announcement
- 04.00 BoJ rate announcement
- 07.00 UK retail sales
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