Good morning
A couple of pretty big events taking place, the first being the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas which has seen both Hamas hand over hostages and Israel release prisoners. As we know any ceasefire in the region is fragile and how long it holds remains to be seen but with Hamas due to release just three or four hostages each week we can only hope it last a long time.
The other big piece of news is Trump’s inauguration which takes place today. Markets are waiting for the flurry of executive orders Trump has promised to announce just minutes after he is officially in power. Immigration and climate are two key topics in the spotlight although there will be plenty of others. The key for the markets in the short term is the possible introduction of trade tariffs and whether they are implemented in full on day one or introduced gradually, as had been suggested recently. The UK’s special relationship with the US is under some threat given Labour’s attempts to influence the US election last year.
The world’s good and the great meet in Davos this week for the latest World Economic Forum. Rachel Reeves is going to be there blowing the UK’s trumpet and mingling with world leaders, including Trump i think. Fingers crossed that goes well.
Best we don’t dwell on the sport that took place over the weekend. Spurs lost to Everton which I think means they have taken just five points from the last 30 available. That’s not good. Big Ange is under pressure, yes Spurs have a significant injury problem but they are still playing the tactics of a team with a full squad available. The relegation zone isn’t that far away now. Yikes. Mark’s Leeds are top of the championship, there is a chance the two teams won’t meet next season. Liverpool remain top, Notts Forest joint second with Arsenal.
So to the markets this morning. GBPUSD is loitering just below 1.2200, EURUSD just above 1.0300, which puts GBPEUR at 1.1810, it’s lowest level since August last year. UK unemployment numbers are due early tomorrow morning, we are expecting to see a small rise in the unemployment rate and the number of claimants. Otherwise it is a quiet week for UK data until Friday when we get UK, EU and US PMI readings. Canadian CPI inflation is out tomorrow, Japan’s CPI is out Thursday night, just ahead of the BoJ rate announcement in the early hours of Friday morning, where a 25bps rise is expected.
Have a great day
- 15.30 BoC business outlook survey
- 17.00 US President inauguration
- 21.30 NZ business PSI
- 07.00 UK unemployment
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