Good morning
Chancellor Hunt laid out tax rises and spending cuts in his autumn statement yesterday. He pointed out that since the March budget the fiscal situation had deteriorated with the deficit rising significantly. OBRs GDP forecasts for 2023 and 2024 were revised down from 1.8% and 2.1% to -1.4% and 1.3% respectively. As such Hunt had little room to do much other than tighten the purse strings and the thinking is that UK household income will drop over the next few years. GBP did fall initially but importantly has held up since then, GBPUSD now 1.1885, and GBPEUR back near the upper end of the two-week range at 1.1490. Very slightly better retail sales data this morning has helped GBP
Feds Bullard spooked the markets a bit when he mentioned the potential for rates to reach 7% under some policy rules. He did make clear he preferred the lower end of this range but the mere mention of even higher rates saw yields jump. Kashkari said he won’t want to stop raising rates until inflation peaks, following the Feds ‘we are not finished yet’ idea.
North Korea fired a ballistic missile that landed in waters belonging to Japan. This is another in a series of missile tests by North Korea, the suggestion is they are in retaliation for US military drills in the area. It is thought this latest missile would have the potential to reach US mainland and Japan, US and South Korea are holding an emergency meeting to discuss the latest launch. Markets have pretty much ignored these missile tests.
With little on the economic calendar today we may have time to focus on other areas of interest. It is Amazon’s Black Friday although the reality is this goes on for more than one day. Usually provides a chance to buy things you don’t really need a little cheaper than you could have done when you didn’t need them a month ago. I still get strangely drawn to their site.
Of course the big news is the start of the World cup in Qatar this weekend. I’m looking forward to the football but I’m also looking forward to seeing how many fans make the trip and how full the stadiums are without the paid supporters we have seen in the press. It won’t be cheap and there are fears of how strict the local security services will be. Just look at the video of the Danish TVC reporter getting stopped by security services. I believe they apologised later but is it a sign of things to come. Mind you normally there is criticism of the hosting nation for one reason or another and then everything turns out fine. Lets hope for the same this time.
So who will win? Brazil are favourites and looking at their squad I can see why. I don’t hold out much hope for England, they will do well to get to the semi-finals. As always I try to look at which countries may be worth an outside bet such as Mexico, not to win overall but to be the surprise contender. There’s usually one that stands out. I’ve mentioned Mexico as an example, I’m not saying they are the one but you get the idea. Good luck to all, lets hope it is the spectacle of football it should be.
- 08.30 ECBs Lagarde speaks
- 13.00 ECBs Nagel speaks
- 13.40 Feds Collins speaks
- 17.15 BoEs Haskel speaks
- 18.45 Feds Bostic speaks
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