Good morning
The US dollar softened yesterday as one of Trumps officials confirmed tariffs would not be fully introduced on day one, GBPUSD traded yp from 1.2190 to 1.2325 in a straight line, EURUSD was also up from 1.0310 to 1.0430. More volatility overnight saw GBPUSD down to 1.2260, up to 1.2340, then back down to the mid 1.22’a, where we are as I type, with EURUSD now 1.0355, leaving GBPEUR at 1.1830
Trump has certainly created numerous headlines from the 1,600 or so executive orders he has signed. On tariffs, he has said Canada and Mexico could see 25% tariffs by the beginning of February, but says China will wait until further studies are complete. This, along with his reversal of the TikTok ban, suggests he is already in negotiations with China. CAD had gained yesterday, USDCAD trading down from 1.4460 to 1.4260 but has since pushed back up to that 1.4450 area. We do have Canadian inflation numbers today which could add to the volatility in CAD. The EU has avoided trade tariffs for now, Trump saying he’ll sort their trade deficit by EU buying more oil and gas from the US.
Energy, border controls, and US withdrawals from WHO and Paris climate accord were also key topics. Trump also questioned Biden’s pre-emptive pardoning of his own family, which makes the Biden’s look incredibly guilty. Trump himself has pardoned many including 1,500 or so from the 6 Jan riots. He has called for NATO members to spend 5% of GDP on defence, and on Ukraine he seems confident he’ll have a discussion with Putin and put an end to the invasion, although I believe this would mean Ukraine has to accept Russia holds land it has taken so far.
UK unemployment this morning was slightly overshadowed by the ongoing dissection of Trumps first day, but on the whole they were mixed, with a lower than expected claimant count but an increase, as expected, to the unemployment rate. GBP did dip initially but quickly reverted to pre-release levels.
Chelsea returned to winning ways last night, beating Wolves 3-1, which took Chelsea back into the top four. It’s European action this week, Villa and Liverpool are both playing this evening. Spurs play on Thursday, the Spurs manager’s job is certainly under threat and he’ll be hoping for a decent performance to get Spurs back on track.
That’s about all for now, it’s a limited economic calendar today but there will be plenty of Trump watching instead as markets try to assess the impact of his second stint as President.
Have a great day
- 10.00 German ZEW
- 13.30 CAD CPI
- 21.45 NZ CPI
Commentaires