Spain and Portugal suffer huge, unexplained power outages

European stocks were up around 0.5% yesterday, faring slightly better that their US equivalents.  Asian markets were also positive overnight.  Putin has said there will be a three day ceasefire next week, starting from 8th May which coincides with celebrations marking the end of World War II.  Whether this holds remains to be seen, there have been several such ceasefires in the past three or so years, none of which lasted particularly well.  I presume Russia may call a ceasefire, but it may not stop Ukraine from attacking, which then opens the door for Russia to defend itself.  And of course, then accuse Ukraine of not wanting peace.   

Closer to home, a huge power outage across large parts of Spain and Portugal caused widepsread havoc yesterday.  Of course, it looks very much like an attack on infrastructure but that has been denied.  Portugal blames the outage on extreme temperature variations that caused some vibration in high voltage power lines in Spain, while some blame atmospheric conditions which is leading many to think of solar flares.  Power is slowly returning.

In the currency markets, we had a lower US dollar which sent GBPUSD up to 1.3440 and EURUSD to 1.1425, both 35 pisp or so off those highs as I type.  USDCHF sank to 0.8200, below even the lows seen in Jan 2015 when SNB pulled the plug on the floor they had in place at 1.2000 for so long.  Markets are looking for any update on various trade talks, and also looking for tariff amendments on specific items such as auto-parts that could be seen as early as tomorrow.

In Canada, Mark Carney and his Liberals have won the elections in Canda, although it is not yet clear whether they have enough seats for a majority.  USDCAD is 1.3830, just a smidge lower than this time yesterdya, while GBPCAD is higher at 1.8550.

Leeds Utd beat Bristol City yesterday to go back to the top of the Championship withone match remaining.  Bristol are in 5th place in the table but some 30 points behind the two top teams, highlighting the gulf between Leds, Burnely and those teams fighting for the play off spots.  Tonight sees Arsenal take on PSG in the Champions league semi-final.  PSG have beaten both Liverpool and Aston Villa in the latter stages of the competiion, Arsenal will be hoping they can seek some revenge for the English clubs so far knocked out. 

A slightly busier calendar today but still not quite the big stuff that comes later this week.  US JOLTS could be interesting given we know it is watched by the Fed but it will certainly be overshadowed by US GDP, core PCE and nonfarms.   Aussie inflation numbers due out overnight, AUDUSD is up around its highest levels for 2025, helped more by USD weakness than AUD strenghth.  AUDNZD currently 1.0760, GBPAUD 2.0865.

We had some superb weather yesterday and in for more of the same today.  A good friend is back from Australia for a month or so, and the in-laws who have been down under for a while also arrive back today.  Talk about good timing!

-  10.00 EU consumer confidence

-  10.40 BoEs Ramsden speaks

-  14.00 US house prices

-  15.00 US JOLTS job openings, consuimer confidence

-  00.50 Japan trade

-  02.30 AUS CPI

-  02.30 China NBS manufacturing PMI

-  02.45 China Caixin manufacturing PMI

-  07.00 German GDP, retail sale, unemployment